David O. Kuranga, Ph.D.
The author is the Managing Director and Principal of Kuranga and Associates Global Consultancy, a political and economic risk management firm that specializes in Africa. He is also the author of The Power of Interdependence with Palgrave Macmillan Press.
According to the President of Niger Mahamdou Issoufou, the rebellion in Mali has direct links to the terrorist organization Boko Haram operating in Nigeria. Like Boko Haram the rebel faction Ansar Dine in Mali is an Islamic fundamentalist group that has links to Al Qaeda in North Africa. Their common ties likely mean that the two groups have members that train together and are likely sharing weapons and other resources. It has also been reported that Boko Haram has fighters in Mali. The link has led to speculation as to whether the impending multilateral intervention in Mali will lead to increased activity in Nigeria and whether militants will cross from one territory to the other.
The link between Boko Haram, Al Qaeda, and Ansar Dine seems more functional than ideological. The groups are working together along the lines of their common interests. However in totality their alliance does not appear to be as cohesive as has been speculated. The agenda of Boko Haram is as political as it is religious and ideological. It appears that they have financial backing from elite elements from the north of Nigeria. Ansar Dine financial backing is largely from Qatar in the Middle East. Aside from the mutual benefit from training and weapons, they do not appear to have any substantive intersecting interests with Ansar Dine. Still since the collapse of the regime in Libya, more weapons and munitions have been floating around the Sahara region than ever before. Military action in Mali will see the weapons move to other territories perhaps even back into Libya where local lords have carved out territories under their control.
One of the likely beneficiaries of the multilateral intervention in Mali may indeed be Boko Haram. If their strategic Al Qaeda ally Ansar Dine is defeated, their weapons and much of their support could come to Northern Nigeria where Boko Haram has come under increasing crackdowns on their hideouts by security forces in Nigeria. Al Qaeda in Algeria may also get a boost of both weapons and fighters after the multilateral intervention in Mali. Mauritania along with Niger are also both likely to have greater security threats along their western and northern fronts respectively pending the multilateral intervention in Mali. All three states have held meetings in Nouakchott, Mauritania and have stepped up patrols along their border with Mali. Along with Nigeria, all three of Mali’s neighbors are under increased security risk that will not go away with the collapse of the rebellion in Mali. Just as the governments of surrounding countries are increasing their vigilance to guard against the threat coming from Mali, investors and firms operating in these countries need to also take steps to guard against the rising political risks they face as a result of these developments.
See my previous article on this topic.
Kuranga and Associates Global Consultancy is a political and economic risk management firm with a principle practice area of Africa. To learn more about Kuranga and Associates go to www.kaglobal.net. © Copyright 2012 David Kuranga. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed.
David O. Kuranga, Ph.D.
Managing Director
Kuranga & Associates Global Consultancy
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