David O. Kuranga, Ph.D.
The author is the Managing Director and Principal of Kuranga and Associates, a full-service investment, political and economic risk consultancy, and asset management firm that specializes in Africa. He is also the author of The Power of Interdependence with Palgrave Macmillan Press.
Three major candidates have come forward to contest the presidency in Mali’s upcoming election that has been hastily slated for July this year. The main contenders include former Prime Minister Ibrahim Boubacar Keita, former Minister of Finance Soumaila Cisse, and mining engineer Dramane Dembele. There is a strong possibility that another major contender could join the list. The highly contested election undoubtedly signals a fractious political elite that is almost certain to sow deeper divisions within the polity in order to increase their support base. In the backdrop of ongoing violence and instability, it is not clear that the haste to hold elections will restore stability to the political order especially if elections are marred by irregularities.
Of the three leading candidates, 2 are decisively left-of-center, namely former Prime Minister Ibrahim Boubacar Keita and former Minister of Finance Soumaila Cisse. The two will campaign on populist themes that has been the basis for their political careers. They will also point back to the years of former President Alpha Konare where they both served as key members of his administration. In a contest to see who will secure the populist majority both candidates will aggressively put forth populist policies with nationalist sentiments. Keita and Cisse may likely be neck & neck on the populist front as they were in the 2002 election, however an alliance between the two is a strong possibility to put forth an unbeatable front especially in the second round. The least known of the three candidates is Dramane Dembele, a mining engineer and the candidate from the ruling party of the national assembly and that of the interim President. Being a relative unknown as well as strong criticism of corruption and cronyism within his party will work against his standing with the public. However his young age at 46 may help him secure support from younger Malians. The short time line till the first ballot will also favor the better known Cisse and Keita. Dembele and the ruling party may eventually play the role of kingmakers if their party’s candidate fails to make it to the second round.
What is clear is that the electoral cycle in Mali will be dominated by left-of-center populist candidates who will be under immense pressure to galvanize public support behind their administration should they prevail. Accordingly it is almost inevitable that whoever takes power in Mali will seek to carve out a greater share of the countries national resources and arrest the growing problem of youth unemployment. International investors exposed to Mali will face increasing risk as the election gets closer. This risks will likely grow once the election has been concluded. It is a strong possibility that some of the companies invested in Mali today will not survive the upcoming political transition. Going forward, decision-makers of invested companies need to realize that this is not business as usual, they cannot just wait it out and see what happens. Most firms I have seen are inadequately prepared for what is ahead. They have invested almost no resources in addressing some of the core risks. Risk management is a specialist field that requires additional skilled personnel. In the end, it will cost firms far more to react to risks that it would to guard against them.
Kuranga and Associates Global Consultancy is a political and economic risk management firm with a principle practice area of Africa. To learn more about Kuranga and Associates go to www.kaglobal.net. © Copyright 2012 David Kuranga. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed.
David O. Kuranga; Ph.D. Managing Director
Kuranga & Associates Global Consultancy
Phone: 212.363.0936
david.kuranga@kaglobal.net
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http://us.macmillan.com/thepowerofinterdependence/DavidOladipupoKuranga
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