David O. Kuranga, Ph.D.
The author is the Managing Director and Principal of Kuranga and Associates Global Consultancy, a political and economic risk management firm that specializes in Africa. He is also the author of The Power of Interdependence with Palgrave Macmillan Press.
In Nigeria, the ruling party, the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) remains in control of the apparatus of the state. They are expected to continue an agenda of deregulation and privatization. Politically there are few challenges to the PDP’s hold on power over the next few years. However the gains made by the opposition in the 2011 election should still be considered troubling. If they are able to consolidate these gains in yet another electoral cycle they may be able to unseat the PDP from power for the first time since 1999. While the national flag bearer and presidential candidate for the main opposition coalition the Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN), Mallam Nuhu Ribadu, did not fear well in the 2011 presidential election their prospects for 2015 are much brighter. It is expected that the popular ACN Governor of Lagos State, Babatunde Fashola, will make a run for the presidency. Lagos is the largest city and the most populous state in Nigera. In addition to Fashola, former labour union leader and current ACN Governor of Edo State, Adams Oshiomhole, may also run or perhaps team with Fashola to defeat the PDP in 2015.
Fashola is credited with revitalizing Lagos State with infrastructure, security, investment, sanitation facilities, and urban renewal projects not seen throughout much of the country. He is one the few political bright spots, running a state that is seen largely as accountable and progressive with lower levels of corruption than in much of the country. Oshiomhole won his first term as governor after contesting his initial loss due to rigging by the ruling party in his state. In a judicial review of the election he was declared winner and hailed nationally as an opposition leader ready to stand firm in the face of corruption from the ruling party. Oshiomhole already had national recognition as head of the umbrella National Labour Congress (NLC) of Nigeria. As head, he led several successful national strikes to prevent hikes in the price of fuel that crippled the economy and brought the country to a standstill forcing political leaders to cave. A union of these two nationally recognized and widely popular opposition leaders will be the biggest test of the strength and ability of the ruling party to hold on to the presidency.
With Fashola currently in is second and final term as governor of Lagos it is very possible, if not likely that this faceoff between the ruling party and the most popular leaders in the opposition is on the horizon. While it is unlikely that the PDP will be dislodged from power at the local levels or within the national assembly as a whole, it is a strong possibility that the party will lose the presidency in 2015. Currently there are no PDP leaders with the same stature and popularity as these two main opposition governors. It is not clear if President Jonathan will run again. With the debate over zoning in the ruling party that surrounded his selection as the party’s candidate in 2011, based on an unwritten agreement among party leaders was that the presidency would rotate between the north and the south. With the selection of Jonathan, a former governor from the south, sources within the party reveal that it was decided that a northern candidate will be selected in 2015 to contest the presidency for the ruling party. Internal fighting within the party and leaders jostling to become the chosen candidate of the ruling party, may further work to undermine whoever is eventually selected. Given this reality, it is not advisable to assume that PDP will continue to rule in Nigeria beyond 2015. Depending on the performance of the current administration, the long era of PDP rule in Nigeria may be in its final days.
Kuranga and Associates Global Consultancy is a political and economic risk management firm with a principle practice area of Africa. To learn more about Kuranga and Associates go to www.kaglobal.net. © Copyright 2012 David Kuranga. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed.
David O. Kuranga; Ph.D.
Managing Director
Kuranga & Associates Global Consultancy
Phone: 212.363.0936
david.kuranga@kaglobal.net
https://kurangaandassociates.wordpress.com/ http://us.macmillan.com/thepowerofinterdependence/DavidOladipupoKuranga
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